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sesefa改成什么了“地量地价”后紧跟“放量中阳”,A股在释放什么信号?

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    来源:Wind金融终端 移动APP在连续四日地量盘整后,周四(12月13日)A股终现放量中阳。12月13日,沪深两市双双小幅高开,股指短暂回踩后震荡走高,大基建、大消费板块集体发力,带领股指全线中阳收于早盘高点,两市量能较日前明显放大。截至收盘,沪指报2634.05点,涨1.23%,成交额1324亿元;深成指报7808.04点,涨1.43%,成交额1725亿元;创业板收报1348.50点,涨0.73%,成交额512亿元。量能上看,沪指全天成交1324亿元,较上日成交890亿元明显放大,在连续的地量后,出现放量中阳,市场人气逐渐复苏。全天,A股盘面呈现了多时未见的普涨行情,行业板块几乎全线上涨,家电、大基建板块强势领涨。放量中阳背后四大信号实际上,在经过连续多天的缩量震荡后,A股市场在近期开始频频释放底部信号,而机构对市场的态度也普遍呈现谨慎乐观。信号一、估值已经处于历史底部区域海通证券表示,2018年以来A股震荡下跌,上证综指从1月29日最高点的3587点最低跌至10月19日的2449点,最大跌幅达32%。目前A股估值已经处于历史底部区域,认为市场很可能进入2014年以来牛熊周期的末期,战略上乐观,但是迎接黎明还要经历一段穿越黑暗的反复磨底时期,黎明信号如广谱利率下降、信贷放量、改革落地。信号二、长期资金加速入市在A股构筑估值底时机,各路资金已经默默地开干。Wind数据显示,12月13日,北上资金大幅净流入逾66亿元,其中沪股通净流入34.56亿元,深股通净流入31.63亿元。继两周前净买入109.85亿元后,上周(12月3日至12月7日)北上资金再次净买入125.82亿元,其中沪股通净买入97.42亿元,深股通净买入28.4亿元。截止到12月13日,北上资金全年净流入A股2970.73亿元,其中沪股通净买入1802.08亿元,深股通净买入1168.65亿元。另外,A股市场国际化取得新进展,继MSCI、富时罗素后,又一家全球知名的指数编制公司标普道琼斯日前宣布,将部分中国A股纳入其全球指数体系。除外资外,作为国内长线资金的养老目标基金也在稳步推进。近期,万家稳健养老、富国鑫旺稳健养老、银华尊和养老3只养老基金“同档”火热开售。据了解,这批养老目标基金中有一家吸金10亿左右,成为迄今为止首募规模最大的养老目标基金。人社部日前刊文指出,养老基金投资运营已有14个省区市进行委托投资,投资总金额近6000亿元,未来还将加快推进职业年金及城乡居民养老保险金的投资运营进程。事实上,职业年金在“入市”路上也再进一步。据了解,21家机构近期将完成“中直职业年金”的述标工作。据推算,职业年金初始入市规模近千亿元,未来每年还将有增量资金不断入市。信号三、年底回购潮“接踵而至”今年以来,市场持续调整。在此情况下,A股公司回购规模也是连创新高。Wind统计显示,2018年以来,已有707家A股上市公司实施回购,累计回购次数1039次,累计回购规模438.63亿元,回购股票数量61.03亿股。从回购规模来看,2018年以来A股公司回购规模较2017年全年增幅达376.98%,且接近2013年-2017年这五年的总和。数据显示,今年已有107家A股企业回购规模过亿,其中美的集团、均胜电子、永辉超市区间已回购金额分别达28.28亿元、18.01亿元、16.28亿元。信号四、政策宽松预期加强近期高层会议释放政策利好,国务院常务会议决定实施所得税优惠促进创业投资发展,加大对创业创新支持力度。国常会大幅减税对创投企业而言,是一重大利好,也给A股的创投概念再添薪火。分析人士认为,如果接下来重大政策利好再度催化,指数低迷震荡僵局或将打破。此时量能是关键,若后市量能改善可以持续,短线做多氛围或将大幅改善。机构对行情普遍谨慎乐观2018年接近尾声,再有11个交易日,今年A股市场行情行将结束。对于明年的投资机会,综合来看,一些大型机构分析师多表示乐观,如海通荀玉根表示,A股处在第五轮牛熊周期末期,估值已见底,战略上乐观。中信建投张玉龙认为,2019年A股市场低位波动,具备中长期战略配置价值,预期股票市场在三四季度将逐步走高。姜超:债券牛”向新一轮“股票牛”切换海通证券首席经济学家姜超表示,明年中国经济仍面临较大下行压力,应对这个情况,货币政策空间相对有限,需要更多借助财政减税、改革。当前国内资本市场正从债券牛市进一步向新一轮股票牛市演化过程中,这取决于减税效果,改革进展等因素。姜超认为,减税是经济繁荣的基石,坚定支持民企,减税降费居首。国内减税已经开始了,但是力度还不够大。增值税税率如果降低2%以上,将对企业带来较大的减负效果。当前A股估值处于低位,通过大规模减税,有望改善企业盈利,从而也有利于推动股市有较好表现。展望未来,中国可能会选择收货币、减税负,这意味着有望走向美国式的股债双牛之路,2017年开始的金融去杠杆在2018年开启了债券牛市,而2018年开始的减税意味着新一轮股票牛市也在酝酿当中,当前中国资本市场面临着历史性的投资机会。黄玉涛:股票市场具有中长期配置价值中信建投证券宏观首席分析师黄文涛表示,预计明年GDP实际增速6.3%左右,名义GDP增速8.5%左右。三季度经济或短期企稳,一方面是由于专项债发行规模增加可能会在二季度支撑社融增速短期企稳,另一方面是外部不利冲击可能在二季度体现较明显,相应可能会带来之后的政策调整。通胀并非明年市场与政策的风险因素,预计CPI增速大致与今年持平,PPI增速回落较明显。二季度之前仍然是享受无风险收益率下行的时间窗口,利率债和高评级信用债收益率仍有下行空间。股票市场具有中长期配置价值。从具体行业看,首先看好通信、电子、计算机、新能源、新材料和高端制造等行业;海外投资者偏好的食品饮料等稳定型板块属于次优品种;银行、地产、券商的投资机会也会慢慢凸显。荀玉根:估值已见底 战略上乐观海通证券首席策略分析师荀玉根表示,A股处在第五轮牛熊周期末期,估值已见底,战略上乐观。从宏观背景看经济从类滞胀走向类衰退,底部打磨期重视高股息率公司,若经济下行压力加大,地产政策有望微调。A股2~3年一次风格轮换,盈利趋势是决定风格的核心变量,催化剂是政策,2013年鼓励并购,2015年底供给侧结构性改革,现在再次支持创新,成长风格将逐渐占优。战略布局新时代新产业,先进制造如5G产业链、新能源车产业链,服务消费如医疗健康、保险。荀玉根表示,今年以来A股业绩仍保持两位数增长,下跌主要源于杀估值。当前政策底已出现,市场短期反弹,但还要经历政策上业绩下的磨底期,黎明信号如广谱利率下降、信贷放量、改革落地。当前A股不断对外开放,预计2019年外资流入规模为4000亿。假设自由流通市值规模不变,2019年A股外资持股比例有望上升至8.8%左右。张玉龙:预期A股在明年三四季度将逐步走高中信建投证券策略首席分析师张玉龙表示,2019年A股市场低位波动,具备中长期战略配置价值。预期股票市场在三四季度将逐步走高。成长板块引领的结构性投资机会是资本市场的主线。张玉龙认为,首先,通信、电子、计算机和高端制造等行业会成为市场关注的焦点;其次,海外投资者偏好的食品饮料等会得到持续配置;第三,银行地产等广义金融板块具有高股息的特征,在信用利率下行过程中也会受益。随着经济和市场触底,券商的板块行情也会慢慢凸显。

lai yuan: Wind jin rong zhong duan yi dong APP zai lian xu si ri di liang pan zheng hou, zhou si 12 yue 13 ri A gu zhong xian fang liang zhong yang. 12 yue 13 ri, hu shen liang shi shuang shuang xiao fu gao kai, gu zhi duan zan hui cai hou zhen dang zou gao, da ji jian da xiao fei ban kuai ji ti fa li, dai ling gu zhi quan xian zhong yang shou yu zao pan gao dian, liang shi liang neng jiao ri qian ming xian fang da. jie zhi shou pan, hu zhi bao 2634. 05 dian, zhang 1. 23, cheng jiao e 1324 yi yuan shen cheng zhi bao 7808. 04 dian, zhang 1. 43, cheng jiao e 1725 yi yuan chuang ye ban shou bao 1348. 50 dian, zhang 0. 73, cheng jiao e 512 yi yuan. liang neng shang kan, hu zhi quan tian cheng jiao 1324 yi yuan, jiao shang ri cheng jiao 890 yi yuan ming xian fang da, zai lian xu de di liang hou, chu xian fang liang zhong yang, shi chang ren qi zhu jian fu su. quan tian, A gu pan mian cheng xian le duo shi wei jian de pu zhang hang qing, hang ye ban kuai ji hu quan xian shang zhang, jia dian da ji jian ban kuai qiang shi ling zhang. fang liang zhong yang bei hou si da xin hao shi ji shang, zai jing guo lian xu duo tian de suo liang zhen dang hou, A gu shi chang zai jin qi kai shi pin pin shi fang di bu xin hao, er ji gou dui shi chang de tai du ye pu bian cheng xian jin shen le guan. xin hao yi gu zhi yi jing chu yu li shi di bu qu yu hai tong zheng quan biao shi, 2018 nian yi lai A gu zhen dang xia die, shang zheng zong zhi cong 1 yue 29 ri zui gao dian de 3587 dian zui di die zhi 10 yue 19 ri de 2449 dian, zui da die fu da 32. mu qian A gu gu zhi yi jing chu yu li shi di bu qu yu, ren wei shi chang hen ke neng jin ru 2014 nian yi lai niu xiong zhou qi de mo qi, zhan lue shang le guan, dan shi ying jie li ming hai yao jing li yi duan chuan yue hei an de fan fu mo di shi qi, li ming xin hao ru guang pu li lv xia jiang xin dai fang liang gai ge luo di. xin hao er chang qi zi jin jia su ru shi zai A gu gou zhu gu zhi di shi ji, ge lu zi jin yi jing mo mo di kai gan. Wind shu ju xian shi, 12 yue 13 ri, bei shang zi jin da fu jing liu ru yu 66 yi yuan, qi zhong hu gu tong jing liu ru 34. 56 yi yuan, shen gu tong jing liu ru 31. 63 yi yuan. ji liang zhou qian jing mai ru 109. 85 yi yuan hou, shang zhou 12 yue 3 ri zhi 12 yue 7 ri bei shang zi jin zai ci jing mai ru 125. 82 yi yuan, qi zhong hu gu tong jing mai ru 97. 42 yi yuan, shen gu tong jing mai ru 28. 4 yi yuan. jie zhi dao 12 yue 13 ri, bei shang zi jin quan nian jing liu ru A gu 2970. 73 yi yuan, qi zhong hu gu tong jing mai ru 1802. 08 yi yuan, shen gu tong jing mai ru 1168. 65 yi yuan. ling wai, A gu shi chang guo ji hua qu de xin jin zhan, ji MSCI fu shi luo su hou, you yi jia quan qiu zhi ming de zhi shu bian zhi gong si biao pu dao qiong si ri qian xuan bu, jiang bu fen zhong guo A gu na ru qi quan qiu zhi shu ti xi. chu wai zi wai, zuo wei guo nei chang xian zi jin de yang lao mu biao ji jin ye zai wen bu tui jin. jin qi, wan jia wen jian yang lao fu guo xin wang wen jian yang lao yin hua zun he yang lao 3 zhi yang lao ji jin" tong dang" huo re kai shou. ju liao jie, zhe pi yang lao mu biao ji jin zhong you yi jia xi jin 10 yi zuo you, cheng wei qi jin wei zhi shou mu gui mo zui da de yang lao mu biao ji jin. ren she bu ri qian kan wen zhi chu, yang lao ji jin tou zi yun ying yi you 14 ge sheng qu shi jin xing wei tuo tou zi, tou zi zong jin e jin 6000 yi yuan, wei lai huan jiang jia kuai tui jin zhi ye nian jin ji cheng xiang ju min yang lao bao xian jin de tou zi yun ying jin cheng. shi shi shang, zhi ye nian jin zai" ru shi" lu shang ye zai jin yi bu. ju liao jie, 21 jia ji gou jin qi jiang wan cheng" zhong zhi zhi ye nian jin" de shu biao gong zuo. ju tui suan, zhi ye nian jin chu shi ru shi gui mo jin qian yi yuan, wei lai mei nian hai jiang you zeng liang zi jin bu duan ru shi. xin hao san nian di hui gou chao" jie zhong er zhi" jin nian yi lai, shi chang chi xu tiao zheng. zai ci qing kuang xia, A gu gong si hui gou gui mo ye shi lian chuang xin gao. Wind tong ji xian shi, 2018 nian yi lai, yi you 707 jia A gu shang shi gong si shi shi hui gou, lei ji hui gou ci shu 1039 ci, lei ji hui gou gui mo 438. 63 yi yuan, hui gou gu piao shu liang 61. 03 yi gu. cong hui gou gui mo lai kan, 2018 nian yi lai A gu gong si hui gou gui mo jiao 2017 nian quan nian zeng fu da 376. 98, qie jie jin 2013 nian 2017 nian zhe wu nian de zong he. shu ju xian shi, jin nian yi you 107 jia A gu qi ye hui gou gui mo guo yi, qi zhong mei di ji tuan jun sheng dian zi yong hui chao shi qu jian yi hui gou jin e fen bie da 28. 28 yi yuan 18. 01 yi yuan 16. 28 yi yuan. xin hao si zheng ce kuan song yu qi jia qiang jin qi gao ceng hui yi shi fang zheng ce li hao, guo wu yuan chang wu hui yi jue ding shi shi suo de shui you hui cu jin chuang ye tou zi fa zhan, jia da dui chuang ye chuang xin zhi chi li du. guo chang hui da fu jian shui dui chuang tou qi ye er yan, shi yi zhong da li hao, ye gei A gu de chuang tou gai nian zai tian xin huo. fen xi ren shi ren wei, ru guo jie xia lai zhong da zheng ce li hao zai du cui hua, zhi shu di mi zhen dang jiang ju huo jiang da po. ci shi liang neng shi guan jian, ruo hou shi liang neng gai shan ke yi chi xu, duan xian zuo duo fen wei huo jiang da fu gai shan. ji gou dui hang qing pu bian jin shen le guan 2018 nian jie jin wei sheng, zai you 11 ge jiao yi ri, jin nian A gu shi chang hang qing xing jiang jie shu. dui yu ming nian de tou zi ji hui, zong he lai kan, yi xie da xing ji gou fen xi shi duo biao shi le guan, ru hai tong xun yu gen biao shi, A gu chu zai di wu lun niu xiong zhou qi mo qi, gu zhi yi jian di, zhan lue shang le guan. zhong xin jian tou zhang yu long ren wei, 2019 nian A gu shi chang di wei bo dong, ju bei zhong chang qi zhan lue pei zhi jia zhi, yu qi gu piao shi chang zai san si ji du jiang zhu bu zou gao. jiang chao: zhai quan niu" xiang xin yi lun" gu piao niu" qie huan hai tong zheng quan shou xi jing ji xue jia jiang chao biao shi, ming nian zhong guo jing ji reng mian lin jiao da xia xing ya li, ying dui zhe ge qing kuang, huo bi zheng ce kong jian xiang dui you xian, xu yao geng duo jie zhu cai zheng jian shui gai ge. dang qian guo nei zi ben shi chang zheng cong zhai quan niu shi jin yi bu xiang xin yi lun gu piao niu shi yan hua guo cheng zhong, zhe qu jue yu jian shui xiao guo, gai ge jin zhan deng yin su. jiang chao ren wei, jian shui shi jing ji fan rong de ji shi, jian ding zhi chi min qi, jian shui jiang fei ju shou. guo nei jian shui yi jing kai shi le, dan shi li du hai bu gou da. zeng zhi shui shui lv ru guo jiang di 2 yi shang, jiang dui qi ye dai lai jiao da de jian fu xiao guo. dang qian A gu gu zhi chu yu di wei, tong guo da gui mo jian shui, you wang gai shan qi ye ying li, cong er ye you li yu tui dong gu shi you jiao hao biao xian. zhan wang wei lai, zhong guo ke neng hui xuan ze shou huo bi jian shui fu, zhe yi wei zhe you wang zou xiang mei guo shi de gu zhai shuang niu zhi lu, 2017 nian kai shi de jin rong qu gang gan zai 2018 nian kai qi le zhai quan niu shi, er 2018 nian kai shi de jian shui yi wei zhe xin yi lun gu piao niu shi ye zai yun niang dang zhong, dang qian zhong guo zi ben shi chang mian lin zhe li shi xing de tou zi ji hui. huang yu tao: gu piao shi chang ju you zhong chang qi pei zhi jia zhi zhong xin jian tou zheng quan hong guan shou xi fen xi shi huang wen tao biao shi, yu ji ming nian GDP shi ji zeng su 6. 3 zuo you, ming yi GDP zeng su 8. 5 zuo you. san ji du jing ji huo duan qi qi wen, yi fang mian shi you yu zhuan xiang zhai fa hang gui mo zeng jia ke neng hui zai er ji du zhi cheng she rong zeng su duan qi qi wen, ling yi fang mian shi wai bu bu li chong ji ke neng zai er ji du ti xian jiao ming xian, xiang ying ke neng hui dai lai zhi hou de zheng ce tiao zheng. tong zhang bing fei ming nian shi chang yu zheng ce de feng xian yin su, yu ji CPI zeng su da zhi yu jin nian chi ping, PPI zeng su hui luo jiao ming xian. er ji du zhi qian reng ran shi xiang shou wu feng xian shou yi lv xia xing de shi jian chuang kou, li lv zhai he gao ping ji xin yong zhai shou yi lv reng you xia xing kong jian. gu piao shi chang ju you zhong chang qi pei zhi jia zhi. cong ju ti hang ye kan, shou xian kan hao tong xin dian zi ji suan ji xin neng yuan xin cai liao he gao duan zhi zao deng hang ye hai wai tou zi zhe pian hao de shi pin yin liao deng wen ding xing ban kuai shu yu ci you pin zhong yin hang di chan quan shang de tou zi ji hui ye hui man man tu xian. xun yu gen: gu zhi yi jian di zhan lue shang le guan hai tong zheng quan shou xi ce lue fen xi shi xun yu gen biao shi, A gu chu zai di wu lun niu xiong zhou qi mo qi, gu zhi yi jian di, zhan lue shang le guan. cong hong guan bei jing kan jing ji cong lei zhi zhang zou xiang lei shuai tui, di bu da mo qi zhong shi gao gu xi lv gong si, ruo jing ji xia xing ya li jia da, di chan zheng ce you wang wei tiao. A gu 2 3 nian yi ci feng ge lun huan, ying li qu shi shi jue ding feng ge de he xin bian liang, cui hua ji shi zheng ce, 2013 nian gu li bing gou, 2015 nian di gong ji ce jie gou xing gai ge, xian zai zai ci zhi chi chuang xin, cheng chang feng ge jiang zhu jian zhan you. zhan lue bu ju xin shi dai xin chan ye, xian jin zhi zao ru 5G chan ye lian xin neng yuan che chan ye lian, fu wu xiao fei ru yi liao jian kang bao xian. xun yu gen biao shi, jin nian yi lai A gu ye ji reng bao chi liang wei shu zeng zhang, xia die zhu yao yuan yu sha gu zhi. dang qian zheng ce di yi chu xian, shi chang duan qi fan dan, dan hai yao jing li zheng ce shang ye ji xia de mo di qi, li ming xin hao ru guang pu li lv xia jiang xin dai fang liang gai ge luo di. dang qian A gu bu duan dui wai kai fang, yu ji 2019 nian wai zi liu ru gui mo wei 4000 yi. jia she zi you liu tong shi zhi gui mo bu bian, 2019 nian A gu wai zi chi gu bi li you wang shang sheng zhi 8. 8 zuo you. zhang yu long: yu qi A gu zai ming nian san si ji du jiang zhu bu zou gao zhong xin jian tou zheng quan ce lue shou xi fen xi shi zhang yu long biao shi, 2019 nian A gu shi chang di wei bo dong, ju bei zhong chang qi zhan lue pei zhi jia zhi. yu qi gu piao shi chang zai san si ji du jiang zhu bu zou gao. cheng zhang ban kuai yin ling de jie gou xing tou zi ji hui shi zi ben shi chang de zhu xian. zhang yu long ren wei, shou xian, tong xin dian zi ji suan ji he gao duan zhi zao deng hang ye hui cheng wei shi chang guan zhu de jiao dian qi ci, hai wai tou zi zhe pian hao de shi pin yin liao deng hui de dao chi xu pei zhi di san, yin hang di chan deng guang yi jin rong ban kuai ju you gao gu xi de te zheng, zai xin yong li lv xia xing guo cheng zhong ye hui shou yi. sui zhe jing ji he shi chang chu di, quan shang de ban kuai hang qing ye hui man man tu xian.

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